Betoptimizr calculation method explained

Odds calculation of all online bookmakers explained in 4 easy steps

Transparency is our core principle. Therefore, we find it self-evident to share our method of collecting, calculating and analyzing the odds data with you. With regards to the parsing and odds calculation, we have a team of top-notch mathematicians working for us. They use their talents and love for betting on creating and updating the independent betoptimizr tool that helps you to win bigger. Feeding the betoptimizr tool is not for the short run, nor a one-off job. Odds and payout percentages change regularly over time. Our betoptimizr mathematicians keep track of the changes and are the first to act on any difference on a payout percentage of any online bookmaker. They make sure you always use the most up-to-date data for your scan.

Our betoptimizr analysis takes place in 4 essential steps:

  • Step 1: Collection of a vast number of odds data of all major online bookmakers in all significant betting markets (50+!)
  • Step 2: Identification of all payout percentages for all (20+) major football competitions, time interval, and type of bet. Based on a long time-frame. We add this considerable dataset to the betoptimizr system.
  • Step 3: Analysis of trends and patterns, and checks for plausibility
  • Step 4: Calculation of the yearly impact

Collection of odds data of all major online bookmakers - Step 1

Collecting odds from at least 50 online bookmakers is not done overnight. The odds of an individual online bookmaker frequently changes, so the odds vary quite a lot! We, therefore, find it very important that the odds of any given match by any given bookmaker is collected several times over. betoptimizr currently collects odds data for at least seven different moments in time:

  • Five days before the match
  • Four days before the match
  • Three days before the match
  • Two days before the match
  • One day before the match
  • On match day
  • LIVE (In-play)

We collect odds on at least 20 games for each football competition

Collecting the odds data of one event is indeed not enough for a proper analysis. We calculate the odds for at least 20 matches to get sufficient reliability of any given payout percentage. Selecting only 1 or 2 games will result in the chance of significant deviations. In particular, the traditional British bookmakers have more variation in their payout percentages per match, as they tend to work with fractional odds. Online bookmakers that work with decimal odds have a more stable payout percentage in most cases. Nevertheless, to be sure that we obtain stable and reliable payout percentages, we always collect the odds of at least 20 matches per competition.

Example:

To calculate the payout percentage of 1×2 bets for the Premier League we collect:

  • 50 odds (the 50 bookmakers), multiplied by
  • 20 matches, multiplied by
  • Seven different time intervals, multiplied by
  • Three different odds (inherent for a 1×2 bet!) equals 21.000 odds

That is just for one competition. As we have set out to analyze 23 football competitions, we are collecting almost half a million of odds.

Odds collection for other of bet types

Besides the regular 1×2 bet, we have also collected odds data for at least the following different bet types:

  • Asian handicap
  • Over/Under
  • Both Teams to Score
  • 1×2 First half

In the end, we have collected millions of odds to be able to draw the right conclusions for you to discover with our free betoptimizr scan. And it does not stop here. betoptimizr is an ongoing exercise, as payout percentages can change over time. Even though our analysis shows that the payout percentages do not change very often at any given online bookmaker, they do change.

Determination of payout percentages per competition, time interval, and bet type - Step 2

We calculated the payout percentages for every match once we have collected the odds.

An example:

For the match Chelsea – Arsenal, the odds of a particular bookmaker, are:

  • Chelsea win: 1.30 (3/10)
  • Draw: 4.5 (7/2)
  • Arsenal wins: 12 (11-1)

The payout percentage calculation is, therefore: 93,0%

Analysis of trends and patterns, and checks for plausibility - Step 3

Once we have collected all data and calculated all the payout percentages, the next step is aggregation and analysis. That is an essential step. Some odds could be error prone or could be just missing. Therefore, this analysis is a requirement to detect the mistakes and avoids calculating the base percentages.

Below, is an example of the aggregation of average payouts we use. Discrepancies can easily be spotted.

analysis trends competitions

For this particular bookmaker, the following interesting facts arise:

  • The average payout percentage (and therefore the odds) vary over time. In this example, the odds are optimal one day before the match or on matchday.
  • The odds are better for the major competitions (e.g., Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A).
  • Which makes the odds for the relatively smaller competitions much worse
  • The odds for LIVE betting (the red coloured bars) are relatively high for the more prominent football competitions.

This aggregation analysis is done for all the online bookmakers. We want to make sure that the results of our betoptimizr scan are both plausible and realistic.

Proof that odds differ by football competition

We show an exciting observation below. The graph plots the average payout (1 day before the match) of all bookmakers for 5 European football competitions. Our data shows that many of the online bookmakers (but certainly not all!) offer much better odds for the major football competitions. In other words, it is essential to analyze the separate football competitions to give you the best results in our free betoptimizr scan.

european competitions

Proof that odds differ over time

We show an exciting observation below. The graph plots the average payout (1 day before the match) of all bookmakers for 5 European football competitions. Our data shows that many of the online bookmakers (but certainly not all!) offer much better odds for the major football competitions. In other words, it is essential to analyze the separate football competitions to give you the best results in our free betoptimizr scan.

Proof that odds differ by type of bet

The graph below (Premier League on matchday) shows that the odds are much more attractive for 1×2 betting and Asian Handicap betting than for any other type of bets mentioned. Especially betting on half-time results can prove costly!

proof odds bet types

Calculation of the yearly impact for sports bettors - Step 4

After we calculate the payout percentages, we compare the different online bookmakers. For you as a player the most vital piece of information. If you want to win bigger that is!

This calculation is most straightforward to illustrate with an example. Click below to reveal the example.

Click for example

  • Bookmaker X has an average payout percentage of 97% for the English Premier League on matchday for 1×2 bets.
  • Bookmaker Y has an average payout ratio of 93%.
  • Player wagers on average 100 euro’s (or equivalent) per week.
  • The annual difference for the expected payout for single bets is therefor: (97%-93%) * 100 * 52 = 208 euro’s (or equivalent).
  • The annual difference in the expected payout for multiple bets (5 matches) is therefore: (97%*97%*97%*97%*97% -/-  93*93%*93%*93%*93%) * 100 * 52 = (69,57% -/-  85,87%) * 100 * 52 = 848 euro’s (or equivalent).

Each year you can add savings to your pocket. Simply by switching to bookmaker X, who has, based on your betting patterns, the best average payout percentage. A 4% difference in payout percentage does not sound like a lot. But it is! The calculation shows the difference is significant. And as easy as apple pie! It only takes about 20 seconds to win bigger!

One final piece of advice. There no such thing as an “overall best bookmaker.” Every online bookmaker has good and bad odds based on competition, time frame, and bet type. Most probably you will benefit most from having an account with multiple bookmakers. With the betoptimizr comparison tool, you can try out all your different betting strategies. Based on your individual betting preferences.

Doe je eigen onderzoek …

Als je zelf onderzoek wilt doen, kun je onze gratis betoptimizr tool gebruiken om binnen 20 seconden te zien welke besparing je kunt realiseren op je voetbalweddenschappen door over te stappen naar de online bookmaker met de hoogste uitbetaling. Onze  gratis tool is and 100% 0nafhankelijk.

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